Why peak-season planning starts in winter
For many New Zealand retailers, November to January delivers a large share of the year’s sales. But the decisions that determine how that season goes are made months earlier: what to order, how much, when, and how to pay for it. A retailer who starts planning Christmas in October is usually too late for imported stock and short on negotiating power with local suppliers.
Step 1: Review last season, line by line
Pull last year’s sales for October to January by product line (or category, if you have hundreds of lines). For each, note:
- Units sold and at what price.
- Stock left over at the end of January.
- Which lines sold out early — and when.
- Which lines needed heavy discounting.
This is your most important planning data. Sold-out lines are missed revenue; leftovers are trapped cash.
Step 2: Forecast this season
Adjust last year’s numbers for what’s changed:
- Market conditions. Retail spending has been uneven — Stats NZ’s electronic card data showed retail spending down 0.1% in December 2025 compared with November. Be realistic.
- Your own trends. Is your year-to-date trading ahead or behind?
- Range changes. New lines need conservative forecasts; proven sellers can be backed.
- Calendar. Where do Christmas Day, Boxing Day and the long weekends fall?
Build a pessimistic and a realistic forecast. Order against the realistic one, but make sure you can survive the pessimistic one.
Step 3: Set an open-to-buy budget
Open-to-buy (OTB) tells you how much you can spend on stock without overloading:
OTB = planned sales + planned closing stock − opening stock − stock already on order
Example scenario — illustrative only. A Nelson gift store plans $120,000 of sales (at cost) for November–December, wants $30,000 of stock left at the end of December, has $40,000 in stock now and $20,000 already on order.
OTB = 120,000 + 30,000 − 40,000 − 20,000 = $90,000 available to spend on new stock for the period.
Step 4: Work back from lead times
For each supplier, find the lead time from order to your shelf, then set an order date:
| Source | Typical steps | Plan to order |
|---|---|---|
| Overseas manufacturer | Production, shipping, port, Customs, freight | Winter, often June–August |
| NZ importer or wholesaler | Stock availability, delivery | August–September |
| Local maker | Production capacity | As early as they’ll commit |
Build in a buffer. Port congestion, shipping delays and supplier stock-outs happen most often exactly when everyone is ordering for Christmas.
Step 5: Plan the cash
Now line up the money:
- When is each order paid? Deposits, balances on shipping, payment on delivery or 20th-following terms.
- What about freight, duty and GST on imports? These are paid before the stock sells.
- When will sales arrive? Mostly late November to early January.
The gap between paying for stock and selling it is the amount you need to fund. Negotiating better terms can shrink it — see negotiating supplier terms.
Step 6: Staff and marketing
Peak season needs more than stock:
- Casual staff — recruit and train by October.
- Extended hours — plan rosters for late-night shopping and weekends.
- Marketing — Black Friday promotions, email and social campaigns, window displays.
- Online — website capacity, delivery cut-off dates, packaging supplies.
These costs also land before the sales, so include them in your cash plan.
Step 7: Plan the clearance before you buy
Decide now what happens to unsold seasonal stock:
- Which lines will be discounted on Boxing Day and in January?
- What’s the minimum price you’ll accept?
- Can any lines be held for next year without dating?
A retailer who plans the clearance buys more carefully in the first place.
Step 8: Track and adjust
From mid-November, track sell-through weekly. If a line is flying, reorder early. If it’s stalling, move it to a better position or start promoting it before Christmas, not after.
Extra planning points for online stores
Online retailers face a few peak-season issues that bricks-and-mortar shops don’t:
- Courier cut-off dates. Publish your last order dates for Christmas delivery early, and plan stock so best-sellers don’t sell out before them.
- Platform and payment capacity. Check your website hosting and payment gateway can handle peak traffic.
- Returns. Budget for January returns, which can reverse a share of December sales.
- Advertising costs. Online ad costs typically rise in late November and December. Budget for them in your cash plan.
- Marketplace settlements. If you sell through marketplaces, check how long they hold funds before paying out.
Funding the stock build
Many retailers fund peak-season stock with a revolving line of credit: draw in spring to pay suppliers, repay from December and January sales, and have the limit ready again for next season. It generally suits retailers trading six months or more, with limits based on turnover and bank statements.
For larger needs — a second store fit-out or a big bulk buy — a property-secured loan of $20,000 to $1m may suit. Our retail peak-season funding page explains how Capital On Call helps.